Markets on Edge, the EU’s Strategic Minerals Playbook, and Kazakhstan-Rwanda Beryllium Pact
MARKETS UPDATE
TAX CUTS, TANKS, AND TRADE GAPS: CHINA GAINS GROUND AS US STUMBLES
It has been a series of unnecessary own goals. Garroting tax credits that are keeping the critical mineral business on life support, fighting civilians in the streets of American cities at the cost of millions of dollars in taxpayers' money, clogging the nation's capital with North Korea-style military pageants of tanks that, these days, could be just as easily snuffed out by Ukraine’s hand-made drones. All this against the background of a catastrophic deterioration in the US trade balance.
At Lancaster House near Buckingham Palace, the American TACO handlers were, apparently, ready to genuflect for a crumb of rare earth magnets. At stake? America’s last remaining edge – semiconductor designs. It’s the last one because the greenback has already been self-immolating since the Inauguration, down 10%. But with the tax credits slashed and tariffs raising the price of components, the elusive re-industrialization remains a pipe dream. The dream may be American, but the PRC still makes the pipe. Right now, China is winning this trade war, and the nationalistic euphoria has now spread to their stock market casino. Closer to home – lithium stocks up, rare earths names down – this can only mean détente, if only for several days.1
GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS
EU NAMES 13 “STRATEGIC” NON-EU PROJECTS TO SHORE UP BATTERY SUPPLY CHAINS
The European Commission, acting under Regulation (EU) 2024/1252, has approved a new list of 13 critical minerals projects located outside the EU for designation as “strategic." "Outside," in this case, includes non-EU countries and overseas territories of the EU member states. This list complements the previously published list of 47 EU strategic projects adopted on March 25, which we previously discussed. 2
Altogether, 13 countries and territories are found on the list, representing six continents. As many as ten projects focus on battery materials, two on rare earths, and one on tungsten.
The European Commission estimates these projects will require around EUR €5.5 billion to push them towards the finishing line. The rationale behind the list lies in raising their profile and helping them be favored in accessing financing and end markets.
The Critical Raw Materials Act was published over a year ago, initiating the process of selecting these projects. A call for proposals closed last August, followed by a six-month evaluation process involving external consultants. The Critical Raw Materials Board and the European Parliament signed off on it last March.
Let us have a look at this selection. First, we notice a significant focus on the anode value chain. This may have been caused by Europe’s failure to rebuild this business and the fact that China releases spheronized graphite very selectively, protecting its near monopoly. Investing in mining projects does not solve this issue per se, but it does show that anodes represent the (very) weak link within the lattice of the EU's battery ambitions.
First on the list is the Balakhivka graphite mining project in the eastern part of the Kirovohrad region of Ukraine. As we have flagged in the past, the country is rich in graphite deposits and has functioning operations (rather than squeaky exploration hopes). It is encouraging to see that the Commission has recognized this.
Next, we find London-listed GreenRoc’s Amitsoq project in Greenland, which is not far away from the US military base and from 80 Miles’ ilmenite project. Amitsoq is at the public hearing stage, and its capex looks a little low (USD $340 million), given that it may require hydropower (and/or wind) to replace diesel. The European Commission was attracted to GreenRoc, given the company’s plan to produce active anode material at its Norgraph facility in Norway.
Next comes the BFS-stage Maniry project in southern Madagascar, which ASX-listed Evion Group NL is developing. Evion has a stake in a producing facility in India for expandable graphite (not for batteries). Still, the scoping study to produce spheronized graphite in Germany probably tilted the balance in Brussels. Maniry is in permitting stage.
This anode push is rounded off with the Sarytogan project in central Kazakhstan, which is not far away from Karaganda (yes, one of Gulag fame). This is a large project (229Mt @ 29% Total Graphitic Carbon) backed by the EU and Kazakhstan signed a raw materials agreement seeking "strategic integration" of the related value chains. Sarytogan Graphite is ASX-listed.
Moving over to the cathode materials, we find two and a half nickel projects, starting with CaledoNi, a smelter in New Caledonia, owned by a Franco-Japanese consortium of Eramet and Nisshin Steel with significant (34%) participation from provincial governments. Eramet operates the Doniambo smelter in New Caledonia, producing ferronickel. The feedstock originates from five operations in the French territory. Eramet’s new (Brazilian) CEO happens to be a good friend of ours, but it is not clear what precisely the European Commission expects from CaledoNi. Conversion of ferronickel into battery-grade nickel is not economically viable at the moment.
Brussels zoned in on a Tier I asset with Magneto’s Dumont sulfide nickel in the Abitibi region of Quebec. It's relatively high-grade, large-scale (nearly 40ktpa), low carbon, and will come with some cobalt by-product (1ktpa)—a no-brainer.
Less straightforward is the São Miguel Paulista (SMP) nickel and cobalt refinery restart project, which was almost run aground by the Australian junior Jervois, which attempted a three-continent tightrope dance before cobalt and nickel prices snapped. The restart was initially planned for early 2024, and Jervois was delisted from ASX last May. It’s unclear at the moment what the way forward is. The EU's documentation refers to Jervois's Brazilian subsidiary.
The EU is also interested in a Kobaloni cobalt refinery in Zambia. Vision Blue, a private vehicle backed by Mick Davis of Billiton/Xstrata fame, is developing this project.
The battery complex closes with Europe’s unique lithium obsession – Jadar (pronounced “yadar,” as our Serbian-American friend assures us). Rio Tinto, in the midst of a CEO transition, is re-running the numbers on what is arguably geographic Europe’s largest lithium-boron project. It has been around for over two decades, and Serbian politics has a flair for infuriating everyone. It may be that Belgrade will decide to keep the product at home and build EVs instead. Just in time for BYD’s implosion? We shall see.
London-listed Tungsten West is working to resume production of tungsten and tin concentrates from the treatments of 700ktpa of ore at the Hemerdon mine in Devon. The capex ticket stands at USD $93 million, and the operating margins look fat (tin mining makes sense these days). The company seeks to close the restart financing by the end of this year. On paper, at least, the appearance on the EU's list could help.
And then we have the rare earths mirage—first, Zandkopsdrift, a several-hour drive north of Cape Town. Frontier Rare Earths Limited owns the fully permitted project and plans to produce 17,000 tonnes of rare earths, including 4,000 tonnes of magnet rare earths, plus 100,000 tonnes of battery-grade manganese sulfate per annum. The roster of consultants is a who's who in mine development: Worley Parsons, Veolia, Metso Outotec, SNC Lavalin, SGS, Mintek, and ANSTO, among others. But where exactly will they process all this? We are aware of at least one US entity talking to them. Unfortunately, it’s a very cerium/lanthanum-rich product, and only yttrium proportions look attractive among the “magnificent seven” rare earth elements restricted by Chinese communists.
Finally, we find Mkango Resources’ Songwe Hill rare earths project in Malawi. We previously expressed some reservations about this project. Still, Brussels must be convinced that Azoty will stick to Songwe Hill as the privileged source of feedstock for Europe’s third (fourth?) rare earths separation plant.
And there is a tail. Why is the EU so concerned about copper? Is it the creeping monopolization by the Chinese smelters? After all, that's one metal that Europe does not need to worry about too much, or do they fear that the freshly elected president and former soccer hooligan will pull Poland out of the EU? In any case, the Commission is after Nussir, an intriguing stratabound sediment-hosted copper deposit with silver and gold by-products. It is located in Finnmark, Norway, way up there, fronting Russia’s strategic nuclear forces (not the ones decimated by Ukraine recently). RK Consulting completed an updated feasibility study according to Australian JORC regulations back in May 2023. It estimated the initial capital cost at USD $101 million. Last February, Vancouver-based junior Blue Moon acquired 93.55% of the issued and outstanding shares of Nussir ASA.
Project-wise, the list tastes like kimchi oozed with marmalade. In an effort to redevelop a coherent, mineral-dependent value chain, the projects make more sense when studied in isolation. And it does not appear that the long-hanging fruit ship was the only criterion.
Geopolitically, it's an interesting mix of allies, fence-sitters (Kazakhstan, Serbia), and countries that, under their current governments, have tilted significantly toward the Russia-China axis (Lula, Ramaphosa). But it’s easy to be critical of the EU’s “white paper” cum “list” efforts. It's still better than committing collective suicide by strangling Sections 30D, 45X, 45Y, 48C, and 48E of the US Internal Revenue Code.
SUPPLY CHAIN OBSERVATIONS
KAZAKHSTAN AND RWANDA STRIKE FIRST-OF-ITS-KIND BERYLLIUM PARTNERSHIP
The crisis in the critical minerals sector sometimes leads to some truly exotic hook-ups. How else can we describe the effort of Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium miner, majority-owned by Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, to source raw materials from Rwanda? Yes, Rwanda is in Central Africa, and it's not about uranium. No, the two landlocked nations are joining hands to produce beryllium. Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund and the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board (RMB) have signed a cooperation agreement. Under the agreement, Kazakhstan will acquire beryllium extracted in Rwanda to meet the needs of Kazatomprom.
What is it about Kazakhstan and beryllium? The story goes back to the glory days of the USSR. From the 1970s until 1989, Kazakhstan’s Ulba metallurgical plant processed beryllium feedstock from the Yermakovskoye mine in Russia’s region of Buryatia (north of Mongolia). It was the second-largest source of bertrandite in the world. What’s the largest one? Spoor Mountain in Utah has been operating since 1969 and is still active. For a long time, Ulba processed stockpiles, but it was a finite resource. Kazatomprom holds a 90% ownership stake in Ulba, but the stockpiles ran out around 2022. Ulba used to export its product to China, where plants operate in Hunan and Xinjiang. Russia was planning to build a plant in Buryatia, but these days, Buryats are mostly sent to the killing fields in Eastern Europe.
On May 28, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held talks in Astana with Rwandan President Paul Kagame. During the meeting, the two sides discussed logistics for delivering Kazakhstani agricultural products to the African market and planned joint space research. They agreed to implement projects in the fields of “digitalization, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.” Rwanda also expressed its interest in Kazakhstani know-how in energy, natural resources mining, and processing.
Next to tantalum, beryllium is one of Rwanda’s subsoil riches, but it does not come from bertrandite. The mineral mined there is called beryl.
Beryllium, the lightest of all alkaline elements, is found in carbonatites (as in Utah and, yes, southern Greenland), felsic pegmatites (Africa, Russia, China), and peralkaline deposits, typically marred by discontinuity and fine-grained nature (Mexico, Texas).
From the US perspective, beryllium is a bit like high-purity quartz – it's a mineral war upside down. We may have a single mine, but it towers over competition, and a plant in Ohio processes the hydroxide into metal and copper alloy. Materion operates both the Spoor Mountain mine and the Elmore plant in Ohio. The last time the US was import-dependent for beryllium was at the beginning of Cold War I, when we imported it mainly from Brazil. It was precious and went straight into the strategic stockpile.
But stockpiling it for what?
First, the element has an excellent strength-to-weight ratio, exceptional thermal conductivity, and a high melting point. This offers high structural integrity and performance at elevated temperatures, making it vital for spacecraft, missiles, and satellite applications. According to estimates from a decade ago, over 10% of beryllium ends up in defense applications, but this has probably changed since then.
Beryllium also has some fascinating binary features. It combines thermal conductivity with electrical insulating properties. It is non-magnetic but dissipates heat. Its transparency to X-rays makes it a unique source for fabricating windows in X-ray tubes. In the nuclear industry, it is valued for its neutron moderation and reflection capabilities. The Palermo No. 1 mine in Grafton County, New Hampshire, produced much of the beryllium metal used for the Manhattan Project during World War II.
There are some substitutes—for structural integrity, it could be replaced by high-strength aluminum or pyrolytic graphite. Alternatives also exist for beryllium-copper alloys, including copper alloys mixed with nickel and silicon, tin, and titanium. But none of these substitutes match Mr. B's performance.
So maybe we should not yet cower in London and beg for Chinese magnets by offering them our topline semiconductor designs. Perhaps the carrot should be beryllium—a rock for a rock, a tooth for a tooth.
From this perspective, the Kagame-Tokayev agreement does not align well with the US strategy, if there is one.
MINING & EXPLORATION NEWS
US and ASX-listed titanium metal fabricator Iperion X has been awarded a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase III contract by the US Department of Defense (DoD). SBIR is a congressionally authorized program destined to underpin industrial base policy by supporting the commercialization of modern technologies. The contract allows US government agencies to procure titanium components from Iperion X over five years, with an aggregate ceiling of up to USD $99 million. The agreement includes indefinite delivery and quantity terms and may be terminated in whole or in part at any time. Product-wise, the initial focus will be on titanium fasteners and the scope of expansion into higher-value aerospace components and other forged products. It’s a crucial step in a value chain that is notoriously difficult to rebuild (recall Russia’s two-decade battle to relearn titanium vacuum welding). From now on, DoD can engage Iperion X directly without requiring additional financing approvals. The company has a pipeline of potential customers representing over 2.5ktpa of titanium demand across aerospace, defense, automotive, and consumer electronics sectors. Defense Production Act and IBAS (Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment) programs have benefited the company.
London-listed Keras Resources reported that CMTP (Carrières Mines Travaux Publics SA), the mining and logistics contractor at the Nayéga manganese project in Togo, has completed dry commissioning of the processing plant and has mobilized its mining fleet to the site. Keras benefits from a royalty and fee agreement with the Government of Togo on production from the Nayéga manganese mine. CMTP is expected to commence mining by the end of June, with ore processing starting in July 2025 at an initial rate of 4,000 tonnes per month (TPM) of saleable manganese. Production is forecast to ramp up to the plant’s nameplate capacity of 8,000tpm by October. Under its agreement with the Government of Togo, Keras is entitled to a 1.5% royalty advisory fee plus 6.0% of gross revenue from the Nayéga mine up to the lesser of 3.5 years or 900,000 tonnes of beneficiated manganese ore sold. Based on a manganese price of $3.50/dmt and annualized production of 7,480tpa, this could deliver approximately USD $0.9 million annually to Keras—around USD $2.6 million over three years. Recently, Gabon’s threats to ban exports of unprocessed manganese have tightened the market. Separately, Keras Resources also holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, USA.
Japan's Toho Titanium has confirmed that rutile from Sovereign Metals' Kasiya mine in Malawi suits high-spec titanium applications. The ASX-listed Sovereign Metals currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project in Malawi, with the Government of Malawi entitled to a 10% free carry. London-based Rio Tinto has an 18.5% stake in Sovereign Metals. Toho Titanium produces approximately 25,000 tonnes of titanium metal per annum in Japan and an additional 15,000tpa at its joint venture facility in Saudi Arabia. The company operates a domestic production capacity of 12,000tpa for titanium sponge and 7,800tpa for titanium ingots. Overall, Japan produces more than 60% of non-sanctioned aerospace-grade titanium. The growing threat of a kinetic war between great powers puts titanium back in the center of Cold War-style preoccupations. The PRC is now producing more than 50% of global titanium metal. Titanium demand from the aerospace sector is expected to grow 7% annually over the next decade, doubling to 132,000t by 2034. Modern commercial aircraft contain approximately 15–20 tonnes of titanium, mainly used in structural components such as turbine spindles, blades, and landing gear. Global aircraft production reached 1,300 units in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%. The product from Kasiya boasts a high TiO2 content, ranging from 95.0% to 97.2%, with low impurities and exceptional metallurgical recoveries of up to 100%. Global rutile production fell sharply in 2024, dropping to just 55,000t from 560,000t the previous year, primarily due to the closure of the Kwale mine in Kenya.
AIM-listed Empire Metals continues to advance its flagship Pitfield titanium project in Western Australia, delivering strong metallurgical results that validate the potential for premium-grade output. A high-purity titanium dioxide (TiO2) product assaying 99.25% TiO2 has been successfully produced. It was produced using a wet scrubbing process, gravity, froth flotation, leaching (including acid bake), and iron reduction. Subsequently, the recovered titanyl sulfate underwent hydrolysis. The resulting product was clean, although we do not yet know the recoveries. Empire will now scale up the test work, using a 70-tonne bulk sample collected during February 2025 drilling.
Vancouver-based Li-FT Power has entered into a definitive agreement to sell 100% interest in 313 non-core claims from the Rupert Project in Quebec to TSXV-listed Power Nickel. The latter company has recently made high-grade polymetallic discoveries at the Nisk project in the James Bay area. In addition to CAD $0.7m in cash, Li-FT gains 2.7% ownership of Power Nickel post-transaction. The seller will also receive a 0.5% net smelter royalty. Li-FT is currently focusing on the PEA of its Yellowknife lithium project in NWT.
ASX-listed Core Lithium has released the results of its restart study for its mothballed Finniss lithium mine in the Northern Territory. The plan proposes transitioning to a fully underground mining operation, focusing on high-grade, steeply dipping orebodies. The plan lowers costs to AUD $690-785/t, a fraction below the current (depressed and depressing) spodumene prices. With a feed grade of 1.27% Li2O and 78% recoveries, the operation is expected to produce 205ktpa of 6% concentrate equivalent. However, the restart is anything but immediate (2027), and the funding pathway remains uncertain. Since the decision to mothball Finniss, Northern Territory has overhauled its onerous, profit-based “royalty” regime. The new system, enshrined in Minerals Royalty Act 2024, sets the level at 5%.
London-listed Andrada Mining has secured a USD $2.5 million loan facility from its largest shareholder, Orange Trust (15.8% holder), to fund a modular expansion at its Uis tin mine in Namibia. The facility will support a 100 tonnes per hour increase in processing capacity, representing a ~75% uplift over the current average throughput of 132tph. The additional plant will operate independently, preventing disruption to existing production or the ongoing expansion into tantalum and lithium by-products. The modular design also provides scalable growth options as the company evaluates new pits and validates historical resource areas. In the first quarter, the operation produced 405 tonnes of tin concentrate at C1 costs of USD $18,900/t. The realized price was USD $32,993/t. Current LME prices stand at USD $32,700/t.
Patriot Battery Metals has confirmed pollucite as the principal mineral host for the cesium recently discovered at both the Vega and Rigel zones of the (lithium-bearing) CV13 pegmatite. Patriot has commenced evaluating options to incorporate the cesium opportunity at CV13 as a potential by-product into the overall economic development of the Corvette (since renamed) project. Pollucite was the mineral of all known primary cesium mines, but outside China, primary mining of cesium ceased in the 2010s. Cesium metal currently trades at around USD $2,540/oz.
Independently, TSX-listed Power Metals has recently released a maiden resource of 13kt at 2.40% Cs2O Case Lake Project (CLP) in northeastern Ontario. Separately, Patriot released a resource upgrade for its lithium assets, with the indicated category increasing by 34% to 108.0Mt @ 1.40% Li2O. This uplift is attributable mainly to the full delineation of the high-grade Nova Zone (at CV5 pegmatite) and the inclusion of most of the Vega Zone (at CV13 pegmatite), where cesium is also prominent.
London-listed Rome Resources has reported that recent drilling at its Bisie North project in North Kivu Province, DRC, has uncovered what is interpreted as a new tin zone on the eastern flank of the Mont Agoma prospect. One hole intersected a 40-meter-wide tin-bearing zone at shallow depth within a weathered sequence. This drillhole lies well outside both the current mineralized footprint and the existing tin-in-soil geochemical anomaly. This may indicate either a new tin system or a fault repetition of known mineralization.
West Australian spodumene producer Pilbara Minerals has released an updated mineral resource estimate for its Pilgangoora mine. It’s impressive on grades. While the total tonnage increased by only 10%, the contained lithium rose by 23%. The uptick is due to the inclusion of the Central Extension Zone, which replaced some of the lower-grade material in other sections of the property. The total resource now stands at 446 Mt at 1.28% Li2O, yielding 14Mt LCE, with 84% of the resource in the measured and indicated categories. Pilgangoora has probably not yet uttered its last word. It’s a real shame that the product ends up in the PRC.
SOURCES: (1) Market Data from Bloomberg as of 9:00 AM ET, June 12, 2025, in the local currency. (2) “Commission Decision Recognising Certain Critical Raw Material Projects Located in Third Countries and in Overseas Countries or Territories as Strategic Projects.” European Commission Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, June 4, 2025. (3) Additional data courtesy of 80 Miles Holdings plc (80M LN), AktinsRealis Group Inc. (formerly SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.) (ATRL CN), Andrada Mining Ltd (ATM LN), ANSTO (Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation) (private company), Azoty (Grupa Azoty S.A.) (ATT PW), Blue Moon Metals Inc. (MOON CN), Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU), Empire Metals Ltd (EEE LN), Eramet SA (ERA FP), Evion Group NL (EVG AU), Frontier Rare Earths Limited (private company), GreenRoc Strategic Materials plc (GROC LN), IperionX Limited (IPX US), Kazatomprom (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC) (KAP LI), Keras Resources plc (KRS LN), Li-FT Power Ltd. (LIFT CN), Magneto Investments Limited Partnership (private company), Materion Corporation (MTRN US), Metso Outotec Corporation (METSO FH), Mintek Resources (private company), Mkango Resources Ltd (MKA LN), Nisshin Steel Co., Ltd. (5413 JP), Nussir ASA (private company), Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMET CN), Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS AU), Power Metals Corp. (PWM CN), Power Nickel Inc. (formerly Power Metallic Mines) (PNPN CN), RK Consulting (private company), Rio Tinto Group (RIO LN), Rome Resources Ltd (RMR LN), Sarytogan Graphite Limited (SGA AU), SGS SA (SGSN SW), Sovereign Metals Limited (SVM AU), Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. (5727 JT), Tungsten West Plc (TUN LN), Veolia Environnement S.A. (VIE FP), Vision Blue Resources (private company), and Worley Parsons LLC (private company).
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